Alan
Mould (North) and Rodney Lighton (South) bid as
above.
Two
notrump showed a game forcing raise with four
spades, three hearts was a second suit. Now
three spades showed a balanced hand, not quite
minimum since he had good controls in the
minors. Four diamonds was a shortage, at
this point South felt he didn't have enough to
progress beyond game, but when North tried again
with five hearts, South re-evaluated and showed
his club control. North made a grand slam
try with six hearts (Alan later thought this was a
bit too ambitious) and Rodney bid the grand on the
basis of his good controls, trump queen and
doubleton heart.
With
the spades 2-2 and the hearts breaking reasonably
there was little to the play.
Of
the 32 tables in play seven bid the grand slam, 22
the small slam and three tables played in game.
The
question is whether this is a good grand slam or
not.
A
grand slam needs to make about 60% of the time for
it to be good odds at IMPs, providing you are sure
that small slam is going to be bid in the other
room.
Here
(as shown by the results) it is likely that at
least small slam will be bid.
A
grand will make if spades are 2-2 (40%) and hearts
are 4-2 or better (84%), or spades are 4-0 (10%)
and hearts are 3-3 (36%) or if spades are 3-1
(50%) and hearts are 3-3 (36%).
The
tricky calculation is when spades are 3-1 and
hearts are 4-2. Grand will make now most of
the time if the long spades are with the long
hearts or if East has three spades and two hearts.
I
calculate all this to be an overall 65-70% of the
time, so the grand is a good proposition.
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