19th Jan 2022


Dealer S EW Vul

S J65
H 62
D K10
C A85432
   


   
S AKQ2
H AKQ53
D A2
C KJ

South
West
North
East
2C Pass
2D Pass
2H Pass 2S Pass
2NT
Pass
6NT Pass
Pass
Pass




A deal from a Bramhall and Cheadle duplicate.

After the game forcing two club opening the rebid of two hearts showed either hearts or a very strong balanced hand, two spades was a relay and two notrump showed 25+ balanced.  North now bid what he thought would be a reasonable contract.  West led the seven of diamonds.



How do you play?

Scroll down for solution

































Solution


There are two main lines of play.
Plan A is to win the diamond in dummy and take the club finesse.
Plan B is to win the diamond in hand and play hearts from the top.

Plan A fails when West has Qxxx in clubs and the hearts are not 3-3.  If the clubs are 5-0 with West having five you have time to play on hearts and will succeed if they are 4-2 or 3-3.  West having Qxxx in clubs is 11%, hearts not 3-3 is 64%, West having Qxxxx in clubs is 2% and hearts behaving is 84% so this lines fails about 6% of the time.

Plan B fails if the hearts are 5-1 or 6-0 (16%) and the clubs are not 3-2 (32%), so this line fails only about 5% of the time.

The full deal was as below, so unlucky, neither line works.

Dealer South
S
J65
   
EW Vul
H
62
   
    D K10
   
    C A85432
   
S
973
    S
1084
H
9
    H
J10874
D
97643
    D
QJ85
C
Q1096
    C
7
    S
AKQ2
   
    H
AKQ53
   
    D
A2
   
    C
KJ