Dealer S EW Vul
A deal from a Bramhall and Cheadle duplicate.
After the game forcing two club opening the rebid of two hearts showed either hearts or a very strong balanced hand, two spades was a relay and two notrump showed 25+ balanced. North now bid what he thought would be a reasonable contract. West led the seven of diamonds.
How do you play?
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There are two main lines of play.
Plan A is to win the diamond in dummy and take the club finesse.
Plan B is to win the diamond in hand and play hearts from the top.
Plan A fails when West has Qxxx in clubs and the hearts are not 3-3. If the clubs are 5-0 with West having five you have time to play on hearts and will succeed if they are 4-2 or 3-3. West having Qxxx in clubs is 11%, hearts not 3-3 is 64%, West having Qxxxx in clubs is 2% and hearts behaving is 84% so this lines fails about 6% of the time.
Plan B fails if the hearts are 5-1 or 6-0 (16%) and the clubs are not 3-2 (32%), so this line fails only about 5% of the time.
The full deal was as below, so unlucky, neither line works.