Tolle Quali Folly
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On Board #14, North held:
Q93
AK
J875
AQ74

and South held:
A64
QJ
A10964
1083

East dealt at Love All and most tables reached 3NT by North or South depending on system.
At our table, South declared 3NT and West led JS. What's the Spade position and where are the Hearts?

Opponents have 9 Hearts, but West has led JS. West must have a few hearts but either longer or stronger Spades.

West could well have J108x(xx).
Opponents are playing standard leads so they would also lead JS from KJ10x(xx).
But either way, West has not led from a doubleton and will definitely have 10S.

You can cover with dummy's Queen which might hold or might be covered by King and Ace, after which a later spade towards the 9 will establish it.
Or you can play low from dummy and win the Ace after which a later finesse of the 9 would establish the Queen.
Also East might just have a singleton King, or might have King doubleton in which case playing low helps to block the suit.

At our table, Dummy played low, East followed with 2S, and South won AS.

Next, how should you play the diamond suit to just lose 1 trick missing 4 cards including KQ?
Cashing AD first is a common folly which works if there is a singleton honour or if the suit breaks 2-2. But this has only a 65.56% chance.

A much better chance (76.0%) is to cross to dummy for 2 diamond finesses.
It gains when KQx (12.44%) or KQxx (4.78%) are onside and loses only to KQ offside (6.78%).

This 10% extra chance makes it worth crossing to dummy twice, finessing through East twice
to produce 4 diamond tricks. But how do you cross to dummy?

If you cross to KH for a losing diamond finesse and West clears hearts, you will need the 2nd diamond finesse
AND the club finesse to work.

The best solution is to cross to dummy first in the safer club suit.
At trick 2, play a club to the Ace (not the Queen in case it loses and they switch to hearts). Then run the JD.

If it loses, West may clear Spades giving you 9S, but when the second diamond finesse works you have 9 tricks.
Or if West exits in hearts, finesse diamonds again, then lead a spade towards the 9S yourself.
Opponents cannot take more than 1 spade, 1 diamond, & 2 club tricks.

The opponents hands were in fact
West:
J1087
1085
3
KJ962

East:
K52
976432
KQ2
5


When North was declarer, the lead was usually a heart.
Declarer now needed the double finesse in diamonds and the club finesse to make the contract and they both worked,
but some declarers still played to the AD.


Thanks to Royce Alexander for this article